Oscar Predictions 2019: What Will Win at Tonight's Show

It’s Oscar Sunday, and though the race usually feels like a lock at this point, the 2019 Academy Awards are set to offer some of the biggest surprises from the ceremony in years. (Not to mention, this year’s show is riddled with controversy and drama.) Nothing—and no one—truly feels like a lock, but that doesn’t mean we’re forgoing some educated guesswork. Here’s who and what BAZAAR.com predicts will take home the statues tonight.

This is a weird Oscar year in that there is absolutely no Best Picture frontrunner. The early choice, A Star Is Born, lost a lot of the buzz it had back in fall, though it’s still nominated in several categories and could pull off a win. But it’s lacking a Best Editing, which statistically makes it unlikely to win Best Picture (only one movie since 1981 has won Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination; that was Birdman in 2014.) Bohemian Rhapsody, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite and Green Book are all plausible picks, but none of them feels like a frontrunner.

Roma earned even more nominations than were predicted, including surprise nods for both its lead and supporting actresses, though this one is also lacking a Best Editing nom. Still, this Alfonso Cuarón passion project might have a slight edge, especially since it took home quite a few Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice awards, and BAFTAs.

Despite the dark cloud that’s been hanging over Bohemian Rhapsody ever since director Bryan Singer’s abrupt firing and the middling reviews that greeted its release, Rami Malek’s engaging, committed performance as Freddie Mercury has emerged as the clear favorite. Already an Emmy winner for his breakout role in Mr. Robot, and fresh off a Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA win for this performance, Malek has all the momentum to suggest a win.

Much like A Star Is Born overall, there was a time when Lady Gaga was the clear favorite in this category, and while her performance as rising star Ally could still win Gaga her first Oscar, another performance has pulled ahead as the frontrunner. Glenn Close’s turn as the title character in The Wife won her the Golden Globe in January, and she’s now the one to beat on Oscar night (though it should be noted, she and Gaga tied for the SAG). The fact that Close is currently the most nominated living actor to never win an Oscar—this is her seventh nomination—would make her win all the more satisfying.

Much like Best Picture, this category’s wide open, although Alfonso Cuarón feels like the safest bet. His nominations this year as producer, director, writer and cinematographer for Roma means that Cuaron is now tied for the Oscar record for most nominations for a single movie—only Warren Beatty and the Coen Brothers have pulled off the same feat. That alone, combined with the unexpectedly huge haul of nominations for Roma and a Director’s Guild win, gives him the edge.

Similarly to Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody, Ali’s performance as virtuoso pianist Don Shirley in Green Book has been able to rise above the controversy that’s surrounded the movie itself (although Green Book was better-reviewed than Bohemian Rhapsody and is in a stronger position overall awards-wise). Ali already won in this category just two years ago for Moonlight, but assuming that doesn’t count against him, he’s probably the narrow frontrunner, particularly since he also nabbed the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA for the role.

If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins’ ravishing follow-up to his Oscar-winning Moonlight, missed out in several categories where it deserved recognition—most notably Best Picture. But Regina King’s standout performance has also picked up several awards—including a Globe, Critics’ Choice, and Independent Spirit Award—and she looks deservedly likely to win again on Oscar night, despite not receiving a SAG nom. The Favourite scored so many overall nominations that you can’t rule out either Rachel Weisz or Emma Stone, but it’s equally likely they’ll split the vote.

This is another category that feels tricky to call, but based on number of nominations alone (which is not necessarily predictive of anything in this category), either The Favourite or Roma will take this award. But since Roma was reportedly shot without a script and in sequential order, it would be an unusual choice for this particular honor.

Nicole Holofcener is way overdue for some Oscar recognition, and her darkly comedic adaptation of Lee Israel’s memoir has been rapturously received all through awards season. It’s a smart and intricate script that could easily win over voters—it won the Writers Guild Award for adapted screenplay, after all—and given the overall lack of female filmmakers in this year’s nominations, it’d be nice for Holofcener to get her due.

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