MLB 2019: Potential busts and players on the decline this season
In addition to all the excitement the upcoming 2019 MLB season will generate, there will inevitably be some disappointment.
It’s important to temper expectations with players who overachieved last season. In certain cases, there’s ample evidence to suggest their past performance does not guarantee future success.
There are also several players who may have seen their best days behind them. Although they could return to past glory, Father Time is a formidable opponent and the performance curve is tough to reverse.
For fantasy baseball owners, these are players you should be avoiding in drafts – at least until the value is too good to resist.
Catcher
Risky: Wilson Ramos, New York Mets – We know what he’s capable of when he’s on the field, but there’s too much of an injury concern to expect big numbers from the 31-year-old.
Slipping: Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers – One of the most reliable offensive catchers in the league for more than a decade, Martin hit rock-bottom with Toronto in 2018, batting .194 in 90 games. Changing teams adds more uncertainty, particularly with the Dodgers' catching prospects.
First base
Risky: Luke Voit, New York Yankees – The big man was terrific in the Bronx last year (.333, 14 HR, 33 RBI in 39 games), but are you confident enough to commit to him as your primary first baseman in 2019?
Slipping: Eric Hosmer, San Diego Padres – In the first year of his big-money contract, Hosmer ranked 19th among 21 qualified first baseman with a .720 OPS.
Second base
Risky: Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox – It’s far too early to give up on Moncada, but we’ve yet to see the signs that he’s ready to take a leap forward in his development.
Slipping: DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees – An uncertain path to playing time awaits the former NL batting champion, whose average dropped to .276 last season with the Rockies.
Shortstop
Risky: Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres – Much like the Blue Jays did with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. last year, there’s a possibility the Padres won’t call him up at all this season, especially with Manny Machado added to the infield.
Slipping: Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants – One of the premier offensive shortstops just a few years ago, the 32-year-old has seen his slugging percentage drop every year since 2015.
Third base
Risky: Josh Donaldson, Atlanta Braves – It's impossible to tell if he’ll be hampered by injuries again or use his one-year contract as a springboard to something bigger.
Slipping: Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners – There was hope Seager might turn things around after a disappointing 2017 season, but instead his OPS dropped from .773 to .673.
Outfield
Risky: Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox – Don’t let a few big hits in the playoffs distract you from the fact that Bradley’s home run total was cut in half from 2016 to 2018.
Slipping: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers – He had a decent season across 405 at-bats in 2018, but Braun’s average keeps dropping and he’s not the base-stealing threat he once was.
Kyle Freeland led the Rockies with 17 wins and a 2.85 ERA in 2018, one of the best seasons by a pitcher in franchise history. (Photo11: Neville E. Guard, USA TODAY Sports)
Starting pitcher
Risky: Kyle Freeland, Rockies – He may end up being the exception to the rule, but only once in franchise history has a pitcher had back-to-back seasons with an ERA under 3.50.
Slipping: Matt Harvey, Los Angeles Angels – The ship has sailed at this point for Harvey, who was far from dominant even after a change of scenery last season.
Relief pitcher
Risky: Edwin Diaz, New York Mets – He had an unbelievable 2018 campaign and is one of the most talented closers in the game, but the risk of burnout is very real coming off the 73 1/3 innings he threw.
Slipping: Shane Greene, Detroit Tigers – Aside from becoming the first pitcher since 2009 with 30 saves and an ERA above 5.00, the right-hander saw his strikeout rate drop off in 2018.
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