Which Movies Will Win at the Golden Globes?

The Golden Globes provide the highest-profile pit stop on the way to the Academy Awards, and this year’s ceremony is perhaps the most advantageously timed edition yet: The day after NBC airs the Globes on Sunday, voting begins for the Oscar nominations. A win, then, will help contenders remain front of mind for academy members filling out their ballots on Monday, and there will be plenty of those winners to go around, since the Globes spread the wealth by splitting their biggest races into separate categories for dramas and comedy/musicals.

Still, for as often as the Globes add their imprimatur to an already presumed Oscar front-runner, this show can still have upsets. The Globes are voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a quirky group of around 90 journalists with only one academy member in its ranks. These individuals have their own tastes, and below, your Carpetbagger tries to think like an H.F.P.A. voter to guess the outcome of the 14 film races.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama

Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Nicole Kidman, “Destroyer”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Rosamund Pike, “A Private War”

Though the eventual Oscar race for best actress will probably include Olivia Colman for “The Favourite,” the Globes have her competing in the comedy category, so this particular contest will come down to the veteran Close and the pop star Gaga. Close is a 15-time Globe nominee who’s won twice for television performances, while Gaga won the only Globe she was nominated for before, thanks to her performance in the 2015 TV show “American Horror Story: Hotel.” Globes voters know that Gaga would deliver a capital-M moment if she wins, and that will probably tip the scales in her favor.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama

Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Lucas Hedges, “Boy Erased”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”

Will “A Star Is Born” take home his-and-hers Globes? I would put my chips on Cooper to prevail, with one caveat: Voters adored “Bohemian Rhapsody” and could push Malek to a surprise win here. (And if you’re wondering why this contest between two onscreen singers isn’t taking place in the comedy-musical category, it’s because the filmmakers behind both movies opted to submit for the more prestigious drama category.)

Best Motion Picture — Drama

“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“A Star Is Born”

Though Globes voters have made their fair share of wacky choices in the past, the group knows that recognizing “Bohemian Rhapsody” in this category would draw derision, especially since Bryan Singer, a magnet for controversy, was fired as director during production. “A Star Is Born,” then, should easily coast to victory.

[Read our review of “A Star Is Born.”]

Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Elsie Fisher, “Eighth Grade”
Charlize Theron, “Tully”
Constance Wu, “Crazy Rich Asians”

This race is between two Brits. Blunt is coming off a banner year that includes starring in “A Quiet Place,” and though Globes voters virtually shut out that horror film, its superhit status only adds strength to Blunt’s bid for “Mary Poppins Returns.” Meanwhile, Colman’s turn as the addled queen in “The Favourite” has the most Oscar heat. While Blunt would be a practically perfect Globe winner, the H.F.P.A. will probably go for Colman, so as to seem more prescient.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Christian Bale, “Vice”
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Robert Redford, “The Old Man & the Gun”
John C. Reilly, “Stan & Ollie”

Adam McKay’s “Vice” picked up the most Globes nods of any movie, so there’s no reason to bet against Christian Bale’s performance as Dick Cheney here. Only Mortensen could put up a fight, but there is an easier category to come for voters who want to recognize “Green Book.”

Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

“Crazy Rich Asians”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Vice”

Globes voters were clearly partial to “Vice,” but not long after the nominations were announced, the film’s review embargo broke and “Vice” got wildly mixed notices. Will that cool voters’ ardor? If so, the better-reviewed “The Favourite” is an easy pick.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

Amy Adams, “Vice”
Claire Foy, “First Man”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Though Adams has never won an Oscar, she’s taken home two Golden Globes, including one for the largely forgotten Tim Burton film “Big Eyes.” In a year when Adams may have her strongest shot at the Academy Award, I suspect Globe voters will be inclined to throw their weight behind her.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Timothée Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

Two years ago, when Ali picked up nearly every trophy under the sun for “Moonlight,” the Globes proved to be the outlier: Instead, the group gave its supporting-actor trophy to the “Nocturnal Animals” star Aaron Taylor-Johnson, who didn’t even make Oscar’s final five. This year should prove to be a make-good for Ali, considered the Oscar front-runner for what is practically a co-lead in “Green Book.”

Best Director — Motion Picture

Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Peter Farrelly, “Green Book”
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Adam McKay, “Vice”

Netflix hopes that “Roma” will be the streamer’s first nominee for best picture at the Oscars, but since it’s a foreign-language film, it wasn’t eligible for best drama at the Globes, according to H.F.P.A. rules. Still, the film was allowed to compete in most other categories, and while lead Yalitza Aparicio didn’t make it into the best-actress race, Cuarón still has so much industry heat that he could trump the first-time filmmaker Cooper.

Best Screenplay — Motion Picture

Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, “The Favourite”
Barry Jenkins, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Adam McKay, “Vice”
Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, “Green Book”

Unless Globes voters have decidedly switched allegiances to “The Favourite,” I’d expect “Vice” to take the win in this category.

Best Motion Picture — Animated

“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

In the 12 years since the Globes have created this category, a Pixar film has prevailed eight times. That should bode well for “Incredibles 2,” which is the highest-grossing animated movie in history … and yet my Spidey sense is telling me there could be a potential upset. “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” is coming on strong as a year-end contender, and the people who love it evangelize about it in a way that is rare. Are enough of those fans in the Hollywood Foreign Press Association?

Best Motion Picture — Foreign Language

“Capernaum”
“Girl”
“Never Look Away”
“Roma”
“Shoplifters”

This will be one of the night’s easiest wins to call: No other foreign-language contender has the Oscar heat or the eight-figure awards-season spending of “Roma.”

Best Original Score — Motion Picture

Marco Beltrami, “A Quiet Place”
Alexandre Desplat, “Isle of Dogs”
Ludwig Goransson, “Black Panther”
Justin Hurwitz, “First Man”
Marc Shaiman, “Mary Poppins Returns”

It’s still sort of outrageous to me that the incredible score for “If Beale Street Could Talk” wasn’t nominated. To me, the only other score on its level is Hurwitz’s for “First Man,” yet the Hollywood Foreign Press Association clearly wasn’t that fond of the film. Could that allow the Globe to go to a different movie that might not win anything else, like “Black Panther” or “Mary Poppins Returns”? I’d still bet on “First Man,” but another outcome wouldn’t be surprising.

Best Original Song — Motion Picture

“All the Stars” — “Black Panther”
“Girl in the Movies” — “Dumplin’”
“Requiem for a Private War” — “A Private War”
“Revelation” — “Boy Erased”
“Shallow” — “A Star Is Born”

There is no way on Gaga’s green earth that “Shallow” will lose this Globe. If the presenter happens to read a different name, expect a phalanx of producers to storm the stage, just to make sure there hasn’t been a “Moonlight”/”La La Land” mix-up.

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