Warriors-Mavericks odds: Dallas a huge favorite vs. Golden State

The Dallas Mavericks (8-5) host the Golden State Warriors (3-12) Wednesday at American Airlines Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Warriors-Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.

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Warriors at Mavericks: Key injuries

Warriors

  • PF Draymond Green (elbow) questionable
  • PG D’Angelo Russell (thumb) out
  • SF Damion Lee (hand) out
  • PG Stephen Curry (hand) out
  • SG Jacob Evans (groin) out
  • PF Alen Smailagic (ankle) out
  • C Kevon Looney (hamstring) out
  • SG Klay Thompson (knee) out

Mavericks

  • PG Seth Curry (illness) questionable

Warriors at Mavericks: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Mavericks 128, Warriors 98

Moneyline (ML)

The host Mavericks are laying -1000 against a Warriors (+650) lineup that’s a shell of it’s opening-day self. Green was able to play through a minor injury in Tuesday’s 114-95 road victory over the Memphis Grizzlies, but he could sit out the second half of the back-to-back. The Mavericks have won two straight home games over the Toronto Raptors and San Antonio Spurs to improve to 4-3 at home for the season. They were off Tuesday night.

A bet on the Mavericks to win outright at this price would return a profit of just $1. This line is approaching what we often see in lopsided college matchups. Pass on this and play the spread.

Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

Take the MAVERICKS (-14.5, -105). The Warriors are 6-9 against the spread overall and 4-4 on the road. The Mavericks are 6-7 overall ATS and 2-5 at home. The back-to-back situation for the visitors along with the potential new absence of Green sways this heavily toward the hosts.

Golden State is outscored by an average of 8.3 points per game (117.4-109.1) while Dallas wins by an average of 3.3 points (114.1-110.8). The Mavs will cruise to the finish with several starters unlikely to see the floor in the fourth quarter.

Over/Under (O/U)

Following suit, take the OVER 215.5 (-128). The Mavericks will do the heavy lifting here in a rout.

Dallas ranks second in the NBA with a record of 9-4 against the Over/Under. Golden State is 8-7 with its opponents taking care of the majority of the projected totals in its games.

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Esten’s NBA betting record: 32-34

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