Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds odds predictions, picks and best bets
The Philadelphia Phillies (72-65) and Cincinnati Reds (64-75) and meet Wednesday evening at 6:40 p.m. ET.
The Phillies have taken the first two games of this four-game series and are 4-1 against the Reds in 2019. Cincinnati has lost six of seven since Thursday. Three of those six Cincinnati losses have been by one run, and that’s been a theme this season. Due to a .388 (19-30) mark in one-run games, the Reds are six games below their expectation for a team which has averaged 4.5 runs per game while yielding 4.4.
Odds provided by playMGM; for a full-set of today’s sports odds, access them at USA TODAY Sports.
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Trevor Bauer
Nola has been a solid pitcher this season, but the right-hander is prone to missteps on the road. His ground-ball stuff fits into a strength for the Reds. While not exactly a fade on his own talents and set of trends, Nola may be worth fading in the right situation.
Bauer was beaten up around the margins in logging an 8.40 ERA, 1.70 WHIP in the month of August. Things to like on the checklist for this one against Philadelphia: starting at home (where he’s been good in two starts since coming over from the Cleveland Indians), PHI on the road (.697 OPS in the second half headed into this series), the Phillies against RHP (subpar .739 OPS), Bauer vs. PHI (.646 OPS against, .107 ISO allowed).
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds: By the Numbers
- Philadelphia has yielded a 51.9 percent winning mark on unders this season. Cincinnati leads the league in the same statistic. The under has won in 59.8 percent of Reds games.
- Even with their 13 runs so far in this series and with a bit of BABIP help, the Phillies rank 17th in road OPS (.757) since the All-Star break.
- The Phillies have shown some road let-up overall this year. In game threes of road sets, Philadelphia is 4-11 over its last 15.
- Cincinnati is tough on starters a third time around (.846 OPS, 9th in MLB). The Reds also rank ninth in the league against GB pitchers (.786 OPS).
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds: Picks and Betting Tips
Moneyline: The upside potential is on Cincinnati. Are the Reds enough of a dog at +125? Not yet, but plenty of recent Philadelphia lines have ballooned toward the Phillies. Look for +132 or more.
Run line: With Cincinnati being the lean, the extra juice on the Reds‘ +1.5, -145. It only serves to confirm the moneyline as the stronger, higher-margin maneuver.
Over/under: The under trends will be tested by a warm, breeze-out-to-right evening at Great American. Nola has yielded louder contact of late; Bauer allows a ton of fly balls. Play the OVER 8.5 -115.
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