Mets in middle of bewildering MLB puzzle — with one ignored solution
A month has revealed a lot and not nearly enough. The belief coming out of spring training was the NL East would be a jumble and any of four teams could win it. Completing 16 percent of the schedule has only slightly clarified the division.
As an NL executive from outside the division said Monday: “You can make an argument for four teams, no doubt.” An AL executive offered, “I still think it’s a four-sided coin flip.”
Ten scout/executives responded to an inquiry on who they think will win the NL East. Most said it was still too early, but when pushed they often whittled to two teams such as Phillies or Mets, or Nationals or Phillies. The team that derived the most love was Philadelphia, though there were two picks for the Mets and one each for the Braves and Nationals emerging as division champs.
The Phillies concluded the weekend at 16-12, atop the NL East. But just three games separated first from the fourth-place Nationals, with the Mets and Braves sandwiched in between.
The consensus view was that the Phillies have an under-appreciated rotation, a strong everyday lineup and the best ability to improve as the season progresses because of a strong farm system and a go-for-it mindset. One scout said, “I think the Phillies are a closer away from being the dominant team in the division and they have the resources to get that before July 31.”
Yet, the Phillies have actually had the best pen of the four NL East contenders, even with David Robertson pitching poorly and then being placed on the injured list with a flexor strain in his right elbow. Then again, it has been a quirky division.
The Nationals lost Bryce Harper and have the most homers in the NL East (and are second in the NL). The Mets, with their touted starters, have the worst rotation ERA in the division. And the NL Cy Young 1-2-3 last year of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola had a combined 4.82 ERA (it was 2.20 in 2018).
Could the division come down to whose ace gets fixed first? Some like/dislike thoughts on the four contenders:
Phillies
Like — The acquisitions of shortstop Jean Segura and catcher J.T. Realmuto very well could have more impact than Harper — the Phillies’ offense flatlined recently when Segura was on the IL. Starters Jake Arrieta, Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez have pitched well, so if Nola can rebound, this could be a strength. The Phillies seem to have to created a home-field advantage.
Dislike — Adam Morgan and Hector Neris have pitched well out of the pen, but this is an area that needs addressing. The NL East has a strong chance of luring Craig Kimbrel since Philadelphia’s pen is bad, the Mets worse, the Nationals atrocious and the Braves abominable (though the wild card for Kimbrel, to me, is the Twins). Despite adding Harper and Andrew McCutchen, Phillies outfielders were hitting just .218 with a .721 OPS, both worst among the four NL East contenders. The mercurial Odubel Herrera is on the IL (hamstring), but I wonder if the Phillies try to upgrade in center field.
Mets
Like — They are minus-19 in run differential and their rotation has underachieved, yet they left the weekend above .500. The offensive depth has been good with Pete Alonso bringing production and energy, Michael Conforto hinting at top-10 MVP results and Jeff McNeil showing last year was no fluke. If deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are what we thought they were then the Mets are as likely to win 20 of 30 as any NL East team. Edwin Diaz is the best reliever in the division.
Dislike — The rotation depth is worrisome even if deGrom and Syndergaard rectify. Should the Mets have used the money spent on Travis d’Arnaud and Jed Lowrie to get more arms? They offered Gio Gonzalez a larger base than the $2 million he agreed to with the Brewers, but he went to Milwaukee because the Mets would not assure him that he would be a full-time starter. Dallas Keuchel lingers in free agency and word is he would sign for the prorated qualifying offer ($17.9 million). That the lefty has yet to sign indicates teams are worried about his health and/or want to wait until after the June draft to not lose a draft pick.
Braves
Like — Josh Donaldson is looking like a great one-year risk even at $23 million, deepening a strong lineup with Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson. Max Fried is emerging in the rotation. Arguably no organization is deeper in pitching prospects.
Dislike — The Braves are going to have to use those pitching prospects to either transition to the major league pen or in trades. Atlanta had led in 11 of its 14 losses. With the NL East, specifically, and the NL, in general, likely to be a traffic jam of teams capable of winning eighty-something games there will be value in not waiting until July to try to improve and find more wins. The Tigers (Shane Greene) and the Giants (Will Smith and a few others) should be open for business sooner than later. Also, with a new cash cow stadium complex the Braves should not be squeezing dollars this way. Kimbrel was drafted and developed by this organization.
Nationals
Like — Patrick Corbin is earning his $140 million free agency price tag and there should eventually be a terrific Big Three with Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Anthony Rendon is using his walk year to burnish his free agency, though he was slowed in recent days after being hit in the elbow. Carter Kieboom has come up hitting and joined Victor Robles and Juan Soto on Sunday to become the first trio of teammates under 22 to all homer in a game.
Dislike — The free agent signings of second baseman Brian Dozier and reliever Trevor Rosenthal have gone bad and abysmal. Rosenthal is part of a pen that aside from closer Sean Doolittle has continued its annual problems regardless of how much attention the Nats focus upon it. The awful Marlins have won one series this year against the Nats, while they are 3-10 against the other three NL East contenders. Clobbering Miami is essential to winning this division.
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