Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres odds, picks and betting tips
The Chicago Cubs (76-66) and San Diego Padres (66-76) meet at PETCO Park for a four-game set beginning Monday at 10:10 p.m. ET.
The Cubs have a loose hold on the National League’s second wild-card spot, 1.5 games up on the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Padres trail by 10 games with their elimination number set at 11.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres: Projected Starting Pitchers
RHP Kyle Hendricks at RHP Cal Quantrill
Hendricks has struggled mightily on the road this season, pitching to a 5.20 ERA as opposed to his 1.77 mark at Wrigley Field. His overall ERA has dropped from 3.49 to 3.22 in the second half, although he’s giving up home runs at a much higher rate than in the first half. He has allowed hard contact on just 26.3% of balls in play but his fly-ball rate has increased slightly. Last outing: Hendricks gave up just one earned run over a six-inning no-decision against the Seattle Mariners. He struck out seven with one walk.
Quantrill’s ERA sits at 4.57 entering Monday. He strikes out 7.44 per nine with 2.28 walks. He has been better at home on the year with a 4.17 ERA and just six homers allowed over 49 2/3 innings. He started the second half extremely well with eight earned runs allowed over his first seven starts, but he has allowed as many in each of his last two outings while striking out five against four walks.
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Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres: By the Numbers
- The Cubs won the first two of a three-game set against the Padres in Chicago in July. All three games played to the under. The Padres covered the run line in all three games.
- Both clubs have preferred the under over their last 10 games. The Cubs went 2-7-1 against the projected number with the Padres going 3-6-1.
- The Cubs are 17-6 in Hendricks’ last 23 starts following a quality start.
- The Padres are just 4-11 in their last 15 home games against a team with a winning record.
- Chicago is the much better team against right-handed pitching with a collective .785 OPS against San Diego’s 28th-ranked .702 clip.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres: Key Injuries
Cubs 3B Kris Bryant is day-to-day due to a knee issue. SS Javier Baez (thumb) is likely done for the year.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres: Picks and Betting Tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; for a full-set of today’s sports betting odds, access them at USA TODAY Sports.
Moneyline: Back the Cubs with a reasonable -143 number and Hendricks on the mound. Quantrill can’t be trusted right now coming off two of his worst outings of the year.
Run line: Double down on the Cubs with +115 odds to cover the modest -1.5 runs. Get in on the number before it drops, which it will substantially if Bryant is in the official lineup.
Over/under: Get the OVER (8.5, -105) with Quantrill having given up nearly the same number in his last two outings.
Get some action in this one by placing a bet at BetMGM.
Esten’s September record: 14-7
Follow Esten on Twitter @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire.
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