Buccaneers-Falcons odds: Surging Atlanta favored at home

The Atlanta Falcons (3-7) welcome the NFC South-rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-7) to Mercedes-Benz Stadium Sunday for a 1 p.m. kickoff. We analyze the Buccaneers-Falcons odds and sports betting lines, while providing sports betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Buccaneers at Falcons: Week 12 preview, betting trends and notes

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  • The Falcons have won the last five head-to-head meetings dating back to November 2016. Atlanta scored 34 points in each of last year’s two meetings.
  • The Buccaneers rank sixth in the NFL with 27.7 points per game. The Falcons score 22.0 PPG, ranking 30th in the league with just 74.5 team rushing yards per outing.
  • The Bucs haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 8.
  • Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston threw four interceptions last week in a 34-17 home loss to the rival New Orleans Saints. It was his third time this season being picked off at least three times in a game.
  • The Falcons allow 26.2 points per game to the Bucs’ league-worst 31.3 points allowed.
  • Atlanta has totaled 11 sacks over two consecutive wins after compiling just seven over its first eight games.
  • The Bucs have the fourth-worst turnover differential in the league at minus-10. The Falcons are minus-eight.

Buccaneers at Falcons: Key injuries

Buccaneers DL William Gholston (ankle) was spotted Monday in a walking boot.

Falcons TE Austin Hooper (knee) and RB Devonta Freeman (foot) remain week-to-week.

Buccaneers at Falcons: Odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Falcons 35, Buccaneers 24

Moneyline ( ?)

The FALCONS (-223) are favored at home despite a 1-3 record. They dominated the division-rival Saints and Carolina Panthers the last two weeks with valiant efforts from the defense. The Bucs are 2-3 on the road, but the new-found Falcons pass rush should wreak havoc on the mistake-prone Winston and lead the way to a third straight win.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Falcons to win outright returns a profit of $4.48 (10 divided by 2.23).

Against the Spread ( ?)

The more profitable play is on ATLANTA with the points (-4.5, -110). The Falcons will need to win by at least five points, as they easily did each of the last two weeks.

Atlanta is 4-6 against the spread for the year while Tampa Bay is a league-worst 2-8 ATS. The first eight games for the Falcons seem like they can be thrown out and the home side will cover once again.

Over/Under ( ?)

Take the OVER 51.5 (-106). The Falcons overcame the losses of Freeman and Hooper last week to put up 29 points on the road in Carolina. Mistakes from Winston and quality field position will lead to even more scoring as they return home.

The Buccaneers are a league-best 8-2 against the Over/Under while topping the projection by an average of 10.2 points per game.

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Esten’s NFL betting record: 27-31

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