‘Be prepared for anything’: Klobuchar surge could turn Iowa caucuses into 5-way race, Monmouth poll finds
WASHINGTON – Sen. Amy Klobuchar received double-digit support in Iowa caucuses polling, according to the latest Monmouth University survey released Wednesday, possibly creating a five-way fight for the state’s delegates on Monday.
In the caucuses, the first in the 2020 race, a candidate must get at least 15% of the votes in a given precinct to move on to the second, final vote, that determines how many delegates they receive.
The Monmouth poll found four Democratic presidential hopefuls who were at, or above, the 15% viability threshold: former Vice President Joe Biden (23%), Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont (21%), former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (16%) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (15%). Klobuchar was close behind at 10%, followed by billionaire Tom Steyer at 4% and entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 3%.
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It was the first time a Monmouth poll found Klobuchar with double-digit support in Iowa. Four other polls have found her at 10% or more since December: two from Iowa State University, two from Emerson College and one from Focus on Rural America. Her RealClearPolitics polling average in the state shows her at 9% with a steady climb since November.
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., addresses a gathering at Barley's Taproom in Council Bluffs, Iowa, Jan. 28, 2020. (Photo: Gene J. Puskar, AP)
The final outcome in Iowa will hinge on how many candidates make the 15% cut, and who the supporters of those who don’t make the cut vote for in the second round. Turnout, which has fluctuated widely in recent elections, will also have a major impact on the final outcome.
“A turnout swing of as few of 10,000 voters could determine who ‘wins’ the caucus if it is driven by a specific demographic group,” said Patrick Murray, the director of Monmouth University Polling Institute.
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In addition to those variables, almost half (45%) of likely participants said they could still change their mind on caucus night.
“Caucus electorates are the most difficult to model in polling,” Murray said. “The smartest takeaway from this, or any Iowa poll for that matter, is to be prepared for anything on Monday.”
When asked who they would vote for if Klobuchar and Yang made the viability threshold in their precinct, along with the top-four pollings candidates, 22% of likely caucus-goers said Biden, 22% said Sanders, 17% said Buttigieg, 16% said Warren, 12% said Klobuchar and 5% said Yang.
If Klobuchar and Yang didn’t make the cut, Biden would jump ahead of Sanders, 29% to 25%, while 20% would back Buttigieg and 19% would choose Warren.
“Klobuchar’s performance could be a real game changer in the final delegate allocation out of Iowa,” Murray said.
The poll was conducted from Jan. 23-27 with 544 likely Democratic caucus-goers and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
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