Prepare for prolonged war in Ukraine and insurgencies: PM Morrison

Australians must prepare for a “prolonged” war in Ukraine that requires a heavy cost on Russia for launching its invasion, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has warned in remarks that also step up calls on China to do more to end the conflict.

Mr Morrison said Russian President Vladimir Putin had to suffer an economic and diplomatic price for starting the war on top of the losses his forces were already seeing on the battlefield, suggesting a long resistance from Ukrainian forces would increase those costs.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison warns Ukraine faces a protracted conflict.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

But the Prime Minister cautioned against the hope that Ukraine might emerge from the war with its independence assured and slammed the “chilling silence” from China when it had more leverage over Mr Putin than other countries.

Asked if Ukraine would emerge sovereign, independent and whole at the end of the conflict, Mr Morrison said “I’m not confident of that outcome at this point” but added that Mr Putin could not be confident, either, of gaining the victory he expected.

“I think there has been an overestimation of Russia’s capability, and that has been made more broadly, and I think that has been made in Russia,” he said.

“What we will certainly see in Ukraine is a prolonged resurgence.

“I think any gains that are potentially made will be very hard to hold.

“And this all goes to our view about what our response should be and that is impose the heaviest possible price for as long as possible to deter any other autocrat from thinking they can go down a similar path and it can be done easily or quickly.”

With the war already inflicting 1,123 civilian casualties, according to a United Nations estimate on Sunday, the United States and its allies are considering an embargo on Russian oil exports but have ruled out a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine because of the danger of direct conflict with Russian forces.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a call on Saturday that the “world is watching” to see which countries stood up for freedom and sovereignty, according to a State Department briefing.

While Mr Morrison has called on China to use its influence with Russia at regular points since the February 24 invasion, he stepped up those remarks on Monday when taking questions after a speech to the Lowy Institute that warned of the increasing power of autocracies.

“No country will have a bigger impact on concluding this terrible war in Ukraine than China. So long as they have a bet each way on this, then I fear the bloodshed will continue,” he said.

Mr Morrison rejected the idea that Mr Putin was “mad” and argued instead he was proceeding with a plan he had considered for a long time and, reportedly, communicated to Chinese President Xi Jinping when they signed a “no limits” pact on February 4.

“We have to understand that autocrats don’t play the same rules as the rest of us. Their mindset is very different, and I found it quite chilling when I spoke to other leaders about conversations that they have had with President Putin about these issues,” he said.

“And they’re subjected to a rather lengthy lecture on nationalistic aspirations of Russia and what is rightly theirs. That has a chilling reverberation with similar lectures that I have been on the receiving end of about situations in the Indo-Pacific and what people claim to be theirs.”

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