Grammys 2019 predictions: Here’s who should win

It’s been 10 years since the Academy Awards announced it would increase the number of Best Picture nominees from five to a possible 10.

Last June, the Recording Academy one-upped them by inflating the number of nominees for the Big 4 Grammy categories — Album, Record and Song of the Year, plus Best New Artist — from five to eight. So when music’s big night goes down on Sunday in Los Angeles, there will be 12 more contenders vying for those top prizes.

While this makes room for more commercial competitors and so, more star power — potentially pumping up declining Grammy ratings — it also weakens the honor of the nomination itself. But isn’t everyone happy just to be nominated?

Yes, it’s great to see the increased diversity in both women and people of color in this year’s Big 4 nominees: Cardi B, Drake, Kendrick Lamar, SZA, Childish Gambino, Brandi Carlile, Kacey Musgraves, Janelle Monáe, Ella Mai and H.E.R. all have major nods. And when you throw in Post Malone, a good chunk of them are representing hip-hop, a genre that historically hasn’t gotten as much love in the top fields. Plus, all but two of the Best New Artist nominees are female acts.

Still, some of these nominees are head-scratchers. Singer-songwriter Carlile’s little-heard “The Joke” feels like just that up against the likes of Cardi B’s “I Like It,” Drake’s “God’s Plan” and Childish Gambino’s “This is America” for Record of the Year.

Soul songstress H.E.R. makes total sense as a Best New Artist nominee, but Album of the Year for her 2017 self-titled set? I don’t think so. What’s more, she’s now sure to draw some votes from the far more deserving Monáe — and her “Dirty Computer” — in the race for Best Album.

The boost in hip-hop and R&B nominees for Album, Record and Song of the Year means they are likely to split the votes, increasing the chances of success for pop-friendlier prospects such as Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper’s “Shallow” or “The Middle” by Zedd, Maren Morris and Grey. The latter, which may not have even gotten any Big 4 nominations without the expansion, now has a real shot at winning.

In the end, here’s who I think will bring home the most golden of gramophones:

Album of the Year: I would love to see Monáe win here, but the country voting bloc should be strong enough to push Musgraves over the top for her resplendent “Golden Hour.”

Record of the Year: “Shallow” and “The Middle” both have strong odds, but I’m thinking — and maybe hoping — that voters will want to make a political statement by recognizing “This Is America.”

Song of the Year: No contest: It’s “Shallow” all the way, with the award going to its “A Star Is Born” singer Lady Gaga and her co-writers (including Mark Ronson).

Best New Artist: H.E.R., as the only nominee here also up for Album of the Year, has the slightest of edges.

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