NBA influence and rule changes have sparked record three-point trend in college basketball

MINNEAPOLIS – The record-breaking shot came last Saturday evening, and the shooter had no idea until someone told him long afterward – which only seemed appropriate, because the record has been broken 55 more times since then, with no end in sight.

Texas Tech guard Matt Mooney’s three-pointer with 6:53 left in the first half of an Elite Eight game with Gonzaga was the 975th of the NCAA tournament, breaking the record set a year ago. And then the record kept getting reset. With the Final Four set to begin Saturday, we're up to 1,030 three-pointers – with three games still left.

It’s not all that surprising, given the tournament expanded from 64 to 68 teams in 2011, adding four more games, to see more three-pointers. But it seems clear something more is happening – and it’s happening from long range. More and more (and more), college hoops digs the long ball.

Auburn guard Jared Harper shoots a three-pointer against New Mexico State during the first round of the 2019 NCAA tournament. (Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA TODAY Sports)

We’ve been treated to Auburn’s barrage of 17 threes (in 37 tries) in a blowout of No. 1 seed North Carolina in a Sweet 16 game (it was the most threes North Carolina had given up in 16 years with coach Roy Williams), which followed 13 threes in a blowout of Kansas. For individual performances, there was Carsen Edwards’ 10 threes – including NBA-range pull-ups – part of a 42-point performance in an overtime loss to Virginia in the Elite Eight game that followed Texas Tech-Gonzaga last Saturday.

“That was the best performance I’ve ever seen,” Virginia’s Ty Jerome told reporters afterward. “That was the best performance I’ve ever played against. … Unbelievable.”

Virginia’s Kyle Guy called it a “performance for the ages,” and it was. Meanwhile, Mooney’s performance against Gonzaga was a little less spectacular. The record-breaker was his only three (in four attempts). But everywhere, all over the NCAA tournament, guys have been hitting three-pointers at a greater clip than ever before. And while Mooney had no idea his shot had broken the record, he has thoughts on why it’s happening.

“It’s the Steph Curry effect,” he says. “I think the game is changing a little bit.”

It’s a sentiment echoed around the Final Four. For a variety of reasons, the game has opened up. We’ve seen 3,008 three-point attempts in the tournament, and the 34.2 percent conversion rate isn’t all that astounding – but this is: 40.7 percent of all shots taken have been threes.

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Start with Steph. Current college players grew up watching Curry’s long-range shooting – and emulating it, too, usually from the time they’re old enough to hoist the ball, anyway they can, from beyond the arc.

“Kids nowadays,” says Michigan State guard Matt McQuaid, who shoots 42 percent from three-point range, “they’re not doing as much dunking. They want to shoot threes all the time.”

When Mooney was a fifth-grader, his dad banned him from shooting threes, wanting him to focus on his form from nearer the basket.

“I still shot threes, though,” Mooney says, laughing. “Because I was making ‘em, he couldn’t say anything.”

It might be why more players seem to have the proverbial ‘green light,’ more often, to shoot from deep. They’re making them. But offensive strategy has also evolved to place greater emphasis on the three, with players spaced on the perimeter to stretch defenses and more players given the go-ahead to shoot from long range.

“I think it’s following the trend … (from) the NBA,” Virginia coach Tony Bennett says. “Guys now can shoot at such deep range. A lot of times it’s four guys on the floor, or five guys. The three ball, just from what Golden State has done and other teams. And then in the college game it’s creeping down, and you’re seeing it.”

McQuaid adds: “You look at the NBA, and all it is is threes and layups. It’s just kind of how the game has evolved to.”

In college hoops, Auburn is easily the biggest example of that trend. Although shooting three-pointers is nothing new for Bruce Pearl’s teams, none have ever relied as much on the shot as this team. Auburn averages 30 attempts and 11.4 makes. With 445, they lead the nation (and have a shot at reaching Villanova’s NCAA record of 464, set last season.

“The best play in college basketball is the inside two, and one – a three-point play. That’s the best play,” Pearl says. “The second best play is the open three-point shot.”

Pearl likes to say Golden State finally caught on a few years back to what his teams had already been doing. Joking aside, he suggests it’s more than simply people catching on to or up with his philosophy, or even the Curry effect – though he acknowledges it.

“It’s the NBA and everybody sort of following suit,” he says.

But Pearl also says the change might also stem from changes in officiating on plays inside the three-point line. With the emphasis in recent years on the so-called principle of verticality, defenders are allowed to make contact with offensive players if they jump straight up. Resulting collisions are often not whistled as a foul. That has made those close-in two-pointers much more difficult to get, Pearl says, adding it might be why many players – often encouraged by their coaches – are opting for the three.

“That’s all of the sudden now a ‘tough two,’” Pearl says. “Why would I take a tough two versus an open three?”

Pearl is standing in a corridor beneath US Bank Stadium. He backs up six, maybe seven feet, then pantomimes a shooting motion.

“If you shoot it from this much farther back, I’m not supposed to be able to shoot, what, 40 percent? Two steps? Three steps? And so, the idea of it being an open, uncontested shot. I think the reason more people are going to it is because inside shots are no longer as high-percentage.”

In the NCAA tournament, the three-pointer has occasionally confounded even great defenses. Virginia’s opponents are hitting only 28.7 percent of three-point attempts, but the Cavaliers couldn’t stop Edwards, who just kept pulling up and hitting from deeper (he was 10-19; Purdue was 14-32, 43.8 percent). His 27 total three-pointers tied the tournament record held by Michigan’s Glen Rice in 1989. Rice played six games; Edwards played four – which at once makes the feat more remarkable and also seems to indicate the record is unlikely to stand for 30 more years.

However many more threes we get in these last three games, that record might not stand for long, either.

“Guys can shoot it off the bounce. Guys shoot – the range amazes me,” Bennett says. “Obviously what these guys can do, what Carsen Edwards did. You’re watching Auburn’s players. It’s just become a huge part of the game. … It’s a trend, for sure.”

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