Mets season preview: How retooled team might back up GM’s brash contender talk

Brodie Van Wagenen probably wouldn’t have gotten hired as Mets general manager last October if his presentations to club COO Jeff Wilpon involved blowing up the team’s nucleus and starting over.

The Mets for multiple decades have avoided the full rebuild approach, and didn’t change that mindset after hiring the 45-year-old Van Wagenen, a former agent who previously served as co-head of CAA’s baseball division.

So instead of trading a coveted piece such as Jacob deGrom in the name of retooling the organization, Van Wagenen looked at least season’s 77-85 remnants and bulked up around them.

Enter Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Wilson Ramos, Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie and Justin Wilson, among others, as the Mets attempt to stay afloat with the loaded Nationals, Phillies and Braves in what should be an ultra-competitive NL East.

Van Wagenen was out front this winter, labeling the Mets as the team to beat in the division, uttering phrases such as “come get us.” One way or another, he will likely be reminded of those words after the season.

A look at the 2019 Mets:

Mets essentials

Most important hitter: Michael Conforto struggled in the first half of last season in his return from shoulder surgery the previous September. Even so, the outfielder rebounded to post a respectable .243/.350/.448 slash line with 28 homers and 82 RBIs. The Mets will need a full season of a dominant Conforto if their lineup is going to produce enough to stay competitive in the NL East. Conforto, Robinson Cano and Wilson Ramos are the guts of a lineup that will be without Yoenis Cespedes for at least the first half of the season and maybe all of 2019.

Most important pitcher: Jacob deGrom had a season for the ages with a 1.70 ERA that translated into the NL Cy Young Award and also earned him a five-year, $137.5 million contract Tuesday. Will there be a hangover effect? It’s hard to imagine the right-hander can duplicate last season’s success, but the Mets would probably gladly sign up for a season in which his ERA jumps a half-run or three quarters of a run, still keeping him among the game’s elite pitchers. DeGrom, the ultimate competitor, will undoubtedly keep the bar set high.

Will have a bigger year than expected: Over his final 50 games with a plate appearance last season, Amed Rosario hit .294 with five homers and 15 stolen bases. It’s the kind of late-season improvement for which the Mets had hoped from the second-year shortstop, who had too many holes in his swing early on. Rosario has reverted to using a leg kick in spring training that he says can help him generate power.

Most likely to disappoint: Steven Matz stayed healthy enough to reach 30 starts for the first time in his career last season, but the left-hander remains something of a work in progress. Overall, he was 5-11 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.247 WHIP. The Mets need better from Matz, but the potential is also there for him to head in the opposite direction if he faces early adversity. With thin rotation depth, the Mets need Matz to succeed.

Key call-up: Andres Gimenez will begin the season at Double-A Binghamton, but there is thought within the organization he could be ready to contribute at the major league level by late-summer (Jeff McNeil made such a jump last year). Gimenez, a 20-year-old infielder, is polished defensively and has an excellent grasp of the strike zone. He could see action at second base or shortstop if the Mets need a replacement for Cano or Rosario on an extended basis.

Biggest managerial decision: If all his infielders are healthy simultaneously, Mickey Callaway will face a challenge keeping everybody involved. Does Todd Frazier take at-bats away from Pete Alonso at first base? How often will Jed Lowrie shift to second base, putting Cano on the bench? Is there a spot in the infield for McNeil when Juan Lagares plays center field? It will be a nice problem for the manager to have — as it stands, Frazier and Lowrie are set to begin the season on the injured list.

Don’t be surprised if: Jason Vargas becomes a strong back-of-the-rotation piece for the Mets. The veteran lefty was an All-Star as recently as 2017 and he improved after a disastrous first half last season. Team officials have every reason to believe they will see the Vargas who pitched to a 3.60 ERA in his final 10 appearances last year.

Sure to make fans grumble: Ramos, Frazier, Lowrie and Cano are older players, and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen will catch plenty of heat if that group spends more time on the injured list than the field in 2019. Cano has a track record of staying healthy, but the others have been spotty.

Will make the playoffs if: Another significant piece emerges in the bullpen behind Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, plus Cespedes returns for the final two months to bolster the lineup.

Will miss the playoffs if: The Nationals and Phillies are as good on the field as they appear on paper. Both teams have loaded lineups and solid pitching.

Injury that would hurt the most: deGrom missing more than two or three starts would be a bad thing for the Mets. Very bad.

Playing the field

First base: Pete Alonso came to camp intent on showing the Mets he belonged and accomplished his mission. The slugging first baseman will bring a powerful right-handed bat to a lineup loaded with lefties. Defensively, Alonso was just fine in spring training, but the Mets could turn to Dominic Smith late in games if needed. Todd Frazier could also figure into the mix at the position once he returns from a strained oblique.

Second base: Brodie Van Wagenen’s first big move as general manager was to acquire Robinson Cano, along with closer Edwin Diaz, in a blockbuster trade with the Mariners. Cano is 36 years old and coming off a season in which he was suspended 80 games for using a banned drug, but still has a left-handed swing that is among the game’s best. The question is whether he can hold up defensively in a non-DH league. But the Mets will try to keep him fresh by getting Jed Lowrie (once he returns from a sprained left knee capsule) and perhaps Jeff McNeil involved at second base.

Shortstop: Amed Rosario showed promise over the final six weeks of last season after a largely disappointing 2018. It’s important to remember Rosario is only 23 years old and still could be developing his power. The key will be reducing the number of pitches he chases, allowing for more consistent contact. Rosario also brings another dimension with his stolen-base potential. Behind him, the Mets have Luis Guillorme, who had a strong camp.

Third base: McNeil began camp with the expectation he would be receiving most of his action in left field, but plans changed once Frazier and Lowrie were sidelined before the start of the exhibition season. McNeil will handle the bulk of the third-base duties in the meantime, bringing his exciting bat into the lineup. In 63 games last season for the Mets, he slashed .329/.381/.471 and drew comparisons to Daniel Murphy. Now the Mets want to know if it was real or a mirage. Behind McNeil there’s J.D. Davis, who won the Pacific Coast League batting title last season in the Astros’ farm system.

Left field: Anybody seen Yoenis Cespedes? The Mets can only hope they will see the veteran slugger at some point this season, following his separate surgeries last year to remove calcifications from both heels. That leaves Brandon Nimmo as the starter and likely leadoff hitter in the lineup. Nimmo took a giant leap in his development last season, posting a .263/.404/.483 slash line with 17 homers and 47 RBIs, and the energy he brings to a lineup is almost unrivaled.

Center field: Juan Lagares played only 30 games last season before undergoing surgery on his big toe. It was just the latest injury to sabotage the career of the defensively gifted center fielder, who is no longer a kid at age 30. Now the Mets will ask him to anchor the position along with Keon Broxton, a defensive specialist acquired in a trade with the Brewers over the winter. Nimmo will also see action in center when McNeil moves to left field. Other than health, the question is whether Lagares will hit enough to warrant playing time. He was off to a good start last season, hitting .339 before disappearing with the injury.

Right field: Conforto was an All-Star in 2017 and on the rise before tearing the posterior capsule in his left shoulder on a swing. The thought is he rushed to get ready for last season, and that played into his disappointing first half. But Conforto rebounded and finished with career highs in hits (132), homers (28) and walks (84). The Mets will need a full season of Conforto at his best if they are going to stay competitive within the division.

Catcher: Wilson Ramos’ arrival on a two-year deal worth $19 million brings a respected right-handed bat to the lineup. The Mets need him to stay healthy; hamstring and knee injuries have kept him attached to the disabled list in recent seasons. But if the Mets can get 110-120 games from Ramos behind the plate they won’t complain. The team should have enough depth at the position, with Travis d’Arnaud returning from Tommy John surgery and Tomas Nido likely to begin the season as the backup. Nido doesn’t bring much of a bat, but team officials like his framing ability and throwing.

Starting pitching: If Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler pitch at the level expected from them, the Mets should at least have a chance in the division. Last year at this time there was debate whether deGrom or Syndergaard was the better pitcher, but that argument didn’t last. DeGrom is now possibly the game’s best pitcher, and Syndergaard is attempting to regain his spot among the elite after a solid, but unspectacular season. Wheeler was as good as anybody after the All-Star break last year, but will he continue near that level? Steven Matz’s inconsistency is maddening to Mets officials, and Jason Vargas should be better than last season, when he was a disaster in the first half. If the Mets need reinforcements they will potentially be choosing from Corey Oswalt and Walker Lockett or may have to shift Seth Lugo to the rotation.

Bullpen: Diaz gives the Mets an electric closer, but there will be early watch on whether the 24-year-old fireballer is ready to handle the big city after dominating in Seattle. Jeurys Familia’s return on a three-year deal worth $30 million gives the Mets a proven commodity for the eighth inning and somebody who can help with Diaz’s acclimation. Justin Wilson was a solid lefty addition to the bullpen, and Lugo and Robert Gsellman should give the Mets a solid top five. But the last two or three spots in the bullpen could be a constant source of concern throughout the season. Luis Avilan and Tim Peterson are among the names that will get a look at the back end.

Bench: The Mets could have a deep bench once Lowrie and Frazier return. Early on it will likely be players such as Davis, Smith and Broxton counted on to provide late-inning contributions.

Prediction: 82-80

Mets will stay in the playoff race for most of the season, but ultimately won’t have enough weapons in the lineup or bullpen. Scarcity of prospects in the upper levels of the minor leagues will hurt.

Source: Read Full Article