Kyler Murray’s Stature Adds Intrigue Right at the Start

On Feb. 28, the people invested in Kyler Murray’s future breathed a sigh of relief. Oklahoma’s Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback had been officially measured at 5 feet 10.125 inches.

It may seem ridiculous to the outside world for much fuss to be made over a measurement that came in just slightly above where it was expected, but Murray, who will potentially be the No. 1 pick in the N.F.L. draft on Thursday, took a huge risk in agreeing to be measured at all. Especially when you consider the way short quarterbacks have performed since the modern game began in earnest with the A.F.L.-N.F.L. merger in 1970.

The 6-foot-5 Peyton Manning is the N.F.L.’s career leader in touchdown passes with 539. The leader for players 6 feet or shorter (Drew Brees, a 6-footer) has a robust 520. But since the merger, the leader at 5-11 (Russell Wilson) has 196, and the leader at 5-10 (Doug Flutie) had just 86.

There isn’t a post-merger leader at 5-9. According to Pro Football Reference, the last 5-9 quarterback to throw a touchdown — or even attempt a pass — was Eddie LeBaron, whose last touchdown pass came on Oct. 20, 1963, for the Dallas Cowboys.

So checking in at a point between Flutie and Wilson, rather than in LeBaron territory, turned Murray from a player who would have to carve his own path to one who could follow in Wilson’s Super Bowl-winning footsteps. And it made his decision to give up a professional baseball career considerably less risky.

The only real question left for Murray, a do-everything star who passed for 42 touchdowns and ran for 12 more last season, is: Will he be chosen No. 1 by the Cardinals and slide into an ideal place, where he could start immediately because of his familiarity with the Air Raid-style offense that Coach Kliff Kingsbury prefers? Or will the presence of quarterback Josh Rosen, whom Arizona took at No. 10 over all last year, persuade the Cardinals to trade the top pick?

If Rosen had not been selected by the Cardinals last year (which was before the team hired Kingsbury), or if Murray were 6-2 or 6-3, there would not be much debate. But as it stands, there should be intrigue right at the start of the draft, which will run through Saturday. The second pick could easily change hands, as well, because the team holding it, the 49ers, do not need a quarterback, and with plenty of holes to fill on its roster, San Francisco might gain more by trading down rather than selecting Nick Bosa, a dominant defensive end at Ohio State, who is rated by many analysts as the top player in this year’s draft.

How to Watch

ABC, in a departure from previous years, will broadcast all three days of the draft. The event will also be available to watch on ESPN and the NFL Network, and will be streamed here.

The first round is scheduled to start Thursday at 8 p.m. Day 2, which covers the second and third rounds, will begin Friday at 7 p.m. Day 3, consisting of Rounds 4 to 7, will begin at noon Saturday.

Likely Trades

After the top two picks are settled, there is plenty of room for movement in the first round from teams looking to convert assets into a bona fide star. The Oakland Raiders, thanks to their 2018 trades of Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper, have three first-day picks (Nos. 4, 24 and 27), and the Giants, after trading Odell Beckham Jr., have two (6 and 17). Other teams with two picks in the first round are the Seattle Seahawks (21 and 29), who picked up the second pick by trading Frank Clark on Tuesday, and the Green Bay Packers (12 and 30). Any team with multiple first-round slots is a threat to make more moves on draft day.

Adding to the likelihood of significant trades is the general belief that this draft class is fairly deep in talent. Beyond Murray and Bosa, there are highly regarded prospects like Quinnen Williams, a defensive lineman out of Alabama; Josh Allen, a linebacker out of Kentucky; and Devin White, a linebacker out of Louisiana State.

Back-to-Back QBs

In somewhat mixed news for Arizona, there is precedent for a team using a first-round pick on a quarterback in consecutive years. It has happened seven times since the draft began in 1936, according to Pro Football Reference, most recently when the Colts selected Stanford’s John Elway with the first pick in 1983 after having used the fourth pick of the previous draft on Ohio State’s Art Schlichter.

That situation in Baltimore was a bit of a mess. As a rookie, Schlichter lost the starting job to Mike Pagel, a fourth-round pick, and Schlichter then missed the entire 1983 season because of a gambling suspension. Ultimately, he would start just six games in his N.F.L. career, losing all of them.

The selection of Elway did not improve the situation. He declared that he would play for the Yankees rather than join the hapless Colts, telling reporters at the draft, “As I stand here right now, I’m playing baseball.” That forced a trade with Denver that worked out splendidly for Elway and the Broncos.

The quarterback situation for the Colts remained fairly fluid until 1998, when the team took Peyton Manning with the first pick.

The decision to draft back-to-back first-round quarterbacks worked out much better for the Dolphins, who had blown the second pick in the 1966 draft on Rick Norton but made up for it a year later by using the fourth pick on Bob Griese. In his Hall of Fame career, Griese led Miami to two Super Bowl wins. Norton started 11 games over five seasons, going 1-10.

The biggest contrast to these teams would have to be the Saints. In 52 years as a franchise, New Orleans has drafted a quarterback in the first round just once: Archie Manning in 1971.

The Other Top Quarterbacks

The first quarterback off the board after Murray is likely to be Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins, a pocket passer who finished third in the Heisman voting. Drew Lock of Missouri is likely to follow Haskins, and Daniel Jones, who has received considerable hype after his underwhelming four-year run at Duke, is projected by most analysts to be a late first-round pick.

Teams in the market for a quarterback in the first round include the Giants, the Dolphins and potentially the Broncos, despite their recent addition of Joe Flacco. A team to keep an eye on, though, is the Patriots, who are picking 32nd and could definitely use a quarterback of the future based on the statistical likelihood that Tom Brady will one day either age or decide that winning Super Bowls is too easy.

Whither, Running Backs?

The recent run on running backs — no apologies — appears ready for a break. Three were taken in the first round last year — including Saquon Barkley, who went to the Giants at No. 2 and was named the N.F.L.’s top offensive rookie — and one has gone in the top five in each of the past three drafts. This year, only two (Alabama’s Josh Jacobs and Penn State’s Miles Sanders) are likely to go in the first two rounds, and neither is expected to be a top-20 selection.

Cornered

Teams always seem to be in need of secondary depth, but the first day of the draft will not offer much help. Georgia’s Deandre Baker is the top cornerback available, and Louisiana State’s Greedy Williams and Washington’s Byron Murphy could also be late-first-round picks. It could be Friday before a safety’s name is called.

Top-10 Tight End

Tight ends often find their way into the first round, but just three have been selected in the top 10 going back to 1997, and just 18 have achieved that distinction in league history.

That number could grow this year thanks to the emergence of Iowa’s T.J. Hockenson. The 6-foot-5, 250-pound sophomore had relatively modest statistics in his two years with the Hawkeyes. But his blend of size, speed and natural talent make him an ideal fit with Jacksonville’s Nick Foles, a quarterback who found his greatest success in Philadelphia when throwing to tight end Zach Ertz. Even if the Jaguars pass on Hockenson at No. 7, he is likely to go off the board early.

After Hockenson, there could be a quite a long wait for another tight end. Alabama’s Irv Smith Jr. is projected by most analysts to go in the mid-20s.

Feast or Famine

The lowly Giants and the champion Patriots have the most picks in the three-day draft, with 12 each, and the Bengals, looking to end a three-year playoff drought, have 11. On the other end of the spectrum, the Seahawks and the Bears are tied for the fewest picks with five. Chicago went all-in with deals to build a winner last year — only to have its season sunk by a missed field-goal attempt — and as a result will not make a pick until the latter part of the third round (87th over all).

The Browns, the Cowboys and the Saints do not have first-round picks heading into the draft, but each has a pick in the second round.

Benjamin Hoffman is a senior staff editor and regular contributor to the Keeping Score column in sports. He joined The Times in 2005. @BenHoffmanNYT Facebook

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